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The polls are open for general elections in the Netherlands, with recent surveys indicating that the far-right firebrand Geert Wilders and his Freedom party (PVV) may repeat their emerge victorious, although experts suggest the party is unlikely of joining the next government.

Survey Results and Political Landscape

The PVV, which previously achieved a shock top result and formed a four-party right-leaning coalition that lasted barely a year, is currently slightly leading in the polls and is forecast to secure between 24 to 28 seats in the 150-seat house of representatives.

Nevertheless, the far-right party's support has dipped since 2023, when it won 37 parliamentary seats. All major parties have stated they will not entering into a coalition with Wilders, who triggered the fall of the outgoing coalition in the summer over disagreements concerning his radical anti-refugee plans.

Major Parties and Forecasts

Following a campaign dominated by issues such as migration, healthcare costs, and the nation's acute housing shortage, the centre-left Green Left/Labour party alliance, headed by ex-EU official Frans Timmermans, is placed a near second, expected to win between 22 and 26 seats.

Also forecast to do well is the liberal-progressive Democrats 66, projected to increase its seat count nearly fivefold to 21-25 seats, while the centre-right CDA is anticipated to significantly increase its number of MPs to between 18 to 22.

The outgoing cabinet members – comprising the Freedom Party, VVD, populist Farmer-Citizen Movement (BBB), and centrist New Social Contract (NSC) – are all projected to lose seats, with several experiencing significant losses.

Voting Process and Political Division

In the Netherlands' electoral system, gaining just less than one percent of the vote yields a party a seat in parliament. Among the two dozen political groups contesting the election – including senior-focused parties, for youth, animal rights parties, basic income advocates, and sports parties – up to 16 could enter parliament.

This significant fragmentation means that no single party is ever likely to win a majority, and the Netherlands has been ruled by coalitions – often including several groups in recent governments – for over 100 years.

Government Formation

The PVV leader claimed that "democracy will be dead" in the Netherlands if the his party ends up as the largest party yet is excluded from power. However, opponents and experts say that winning the most seats does not assure a role in the coalition and that any governing alliance with a majority is democratically valid.

While the final outcome is hard to predict and government negotiations may require months, analysts indicate that after the most radical administration in recent memory, the future government is expected to be a broad-based coalition headed by either the moderate left or centrist right.

Voting Process

Polling stations, including those in the Madurodam model village in the capital and the Anne Frank museum in Amsterdam, began operations at 7.30am (6:30 GMT) and will close at 9pm. A typically reliable post-voting survey is anticipated soon after the polls close.

Once voting concludes, an informateur will explore possible coalitions that could secure enough support in the legislature. Potential partners will then draft a governing pact for the next four years and must undergo a confidence vote in the house before taking office.